Western Australia Tomorrow is a set of forecasts1 based on trends since the 1980s. The forecasts represent the best estimate of future population size if trends in fertility, mortality and migration continue. They use the latest information about changes in trends. In some cases these have occurred since the 2006 base year.
Trend forecasts are used in a number of ways. One of them is to identify those futures which we wish to build upon and some that we would rather avoid. As a result government has adopted plans and strategies that are expected to change future trends. These include Directions 2031 and Beyond, Pilbara Cities and Supertowns. Each of the plans and strategies has included a forecast of future population.
The forecasts within these plans and strategies differ from WA Tomorrow in a number of ways. In some cases, such as Directions 2031, the aggregate forecast has been consistent with WA Tomorrow.
The emphasis in this plan is on meeting the requirement to find room for future population growth while maintaining local environments and valued quality of life. In other cases the forecasts represent an aspirational target which is seen as beneficial for the communities involved. The emphasis may not be on the forecast but rather on what changes may be needed to change future population. As a result the forecast is about direction and not the ultimate size of population.
FutureWA Tomorrow forecasts will incorporate the changes achieved through these plans and strategies. Sometimes it will be easy to know how to incorporate the different views of the future. Readers will need to fully understand what a particular plan or strategy is trying to achieve and make an assessment on the relevance of the plan or strategy.
1 As with the previous set of projections the terms forecast and projection have the same meaning within this document.
Western Australia Tomorrow includes a forecast range known as bands from which a median forecast is derived along with two upper forecasts and two lower forecasts. Users have five forecasts or bands from which to choose. Bands A and B contain the lower forecasts, Band C is the median forecast and Bands D and E the higher forecasts. By providing a forecast range, users will have the ability to choose the forecast or forecasts which best suits their purpose.
Current Projections - Western Australia Tomorrow, Population Report No.7, 2006 to 2026, February 2012
Choose your area of interest:
Household projections are useful for understanding future housing needs and the associated service provision. These forecasts are based on the Western Australia Tomorrow population forecasts and therefore have all of the uncertainty associated with those forecasts. The propensity to form households is derived from the 2006 Census.
The household size of family and group households is forecast for each local authority. Forecasts also include the number of persons in lone person households and non-private dwellings.
Household Forecasts - Western Australia Tomorrow, Population Report No. 8, 2006 to 2026, July 2012
Household Forecasts for all Local Government Areas in Western Australia